Betting Odds on State Legalization
By Keith Mansur
Oregon Cannabis Connection
Las Vegas political oddsmaker Larry Josephson has used his forecasting skills to set betting odds on the likelihood of legalization in different states this November, with Nevada leading the way with 1/3 odds, or a 75% chance. Other states have ballot initiatives, as well, but are far behind Nevada, according to his analysis.
In his resent article, Cannabis Odds: Blunt talk about legalization, Josephson lays out his odds for legalization, with his home state of Nevada leading the way with odds of 1/3, or 75%, chance of legalization success with their Question 2 in November.
“Nevada and Maine are already locked into a November vote, and polls in both states favor legalization,” explains Josephson in his estimates. “Florida polls are also encouraging, but the state is only slated to vote on medical use. The rest of the bunch are still collecting signatures in hopes of putting the question to the people come November 8.”
“The good news: the tide appears to be turning as state after state consider the issue. Pressure from advocates and from the medical community about the benefits of medical cannabis in State A make it difficult for State B to vote against similar proposed laws. And, at last word, the sky had not fallen in the five places – Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, Washington state, and Washington, D.C. – which have legalized cannabis for recreational use.
More good news: polls show that a clear majority (55-percent) of Americans favors unfettered legalization, up from a meager 12-percent in the Woodstock days. Millennials are clearly on board (68-percent) and, in total, 94 million Americans acknowledge trying cannabis at one time or another. Our very own Nevada is slated to vote on legalization of recreational use on November 8, and polls again look positive.”
The article also gives odds on the next nation to legalize “recreational” cannabis within two years, and the next celebrity to launch their own marijuana brand. He favors Canada at 2/13 odds, or an 87% likelihood to legalize, and Justin Bieber and Oprah tied at the top of the next canna-celebs at 12/1 odds (or 8%), Bill Maher at only 25/1 (or only 4%), and Barack Obama at a measly 1000/1 (or 0.1%) .
Who would have thought Oprah before Bill?
Odds Nevada legalizes cannabis for recreational use in November (by voting “yes” on Marijuana Legalization Initiative, Question 2): 1/3 (75%)
Odds on the next state to legalize recreational cannabis use*
Nevada: 9/4 (30%)**
Maine: 5/2 (28%)
California: 9/2 (18%)
Massachusetts: 7/1 (13%)
Arizona: 20/1 (5%)
Michigan: 24/1 (4%)
Montana: 49/1 (2%)
North Dakota: 500/1 (<1%)
Florida: 500/1 (<1%)
* Nevada and Maine are already locked into a November vote, and polls in both states favor legalization. The polls are a little more convincing in Nevada. Florida polls are also encouraging, but the state is only slated to vote on medical use. The rest of the bunch are still collecting signatures in hopes of putting the question to the people come November 8.
** (other than Question 2 in NV)
Odds that recreational cannabis will be legalized in ____ in the next two years
Canada: 2/13 (87%)
Italy: 7/1 (13%)
Germany: 9/1 (10%)
Australia: 10/1 (9%)
New Zealand: 20/1 (5%)
Spain: 30/1 (3%)
United Kingdom: 35/1 (3%)
France: 35/1 (3%)
Odds on the next celebrity to launch his/her own cannabis product line (following in the footsteps of Snoop Dogg)
Oprah Winfrey: 12/1 (8%)
Justin Bieber: 12/1 (8%)
Jay Z: 13/1 (7%)
Hugh Hefner: 13/1 (7%)
Morgan Freeman: 13/1 (7%)
Paris Hilton: 15/1 (6%)
Miley Cyrus: 18/1 (5%)
Lady Gaga: 20/1 (5%)
Bill Maher: 25/1 (4%)
Stephen Colbert: 25/1 (4%)
Barack Obama: 1000/1 (<1%)
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